When is Virus covid ends from this world - KONTEN VIRAL

When is Virus covid ends from this world

When is the covid pandemic going to end so many people have been comparing the spanish flu to sars cov2 for example the spanish flu took place over two years between 1918 to 1920 and consisted of four waves so here we are almost two years later and there have been four waves so it'll end in 2022 right right.

Today we're gonna break down how this all might end with specific predictions based on expert opinions past virus trajectories and up-to-date research and models let's go first off a reminder that this novel coronavirus carries its genetic info as rna not dna and is considered an intracellular parasite

which is a fancy way of saying it can only reproduce within cells so sars cov2 may think she's that girl but it's like are you even alive call me when you have your own cells or a metabolism hon although maybe we shouldn't be making fun of her because currently she's doing a great job infecting us all even though the flu is also an rna virus it is different than the current rna coronavirus that we are all talking about so to understand what is going to

happen to us in the future it's also worth looking at the coronaviruses or colds that infect all of us each year a new genius study went back to look at blood samples over multiple decades for the seasonal coronavirus 229e because this virus is able to infect people repeatedly throughout their lives but what they realized through the blood samples was that individuals in the 80s had different immune markers than those in the 90s and even more so from those in the 2000s this makes researchers think coronavirus 2290 might also be mutating throughout these decades that's

maybe what's causing reinfection it's not just fading immune response so the big question is when will sarcov2 virus join the other four coronaviruses that circulate throat populations and cause relatively mild colds how does that happen now that is the big question on the one hand it could become endemic

meaning infections stabilize without these unexpected spikes that would require a low reproduction number like r1 meaning an infected person is likely to infect only one other person not like this omicron variant which is making graphs of covet cases look like a comedic joke straight line up on the

other hand sars cov2 could become something more threatening like a bad flu or something even worse it's a myth to say that viruses only evolve to become more mild which is a narrative that keeps getting pushed it's possible but the reality is far more complex the rna inside is a blueprint that needs to

get its genetic material into the cytoplasm of your cells then the ribosome starts reading the blueprint three nucleic acids at a time and then strings them together and creates the protein but occasionally the wrong nucleic acid will get added to the chain this can sometimes lead to changes making an offspring virus different from its parent and these random changes can

sometimes be advantageous to the virus early genome sequencing of the sars cov2 virus showed that it was picking up around two single ladder mutations per month there are two important ways to think about how mutations affect the virus that we are currently all fleeing from one is its transmissibility like mutations that make it replicate faster or make it more contagious to others and two is its ability to evade immune response like mutations in the spike

proteins that make it sneak past our immune system gamma and beta had a slew of mutations in the fame fame spike protein were all talking about that made it bind more easily to ace2 receptors in your body and that made it more easily absorbed into your cells meaning boom it's more transmissible it's more likely

to gain these effective mutations the longer it replicates in a host so the longer you are sick the more likely these mutations can happen this is why these mutations are more likely to happen in people who are not vaccinated or in people who are immunocompromised king delta identified in spring 2021 was 60 more transmissible than any other strain before because of mutations that researchers think caused it to replicate faster in the airways of infected

individuals outpacing the initial immune response especially again in those unvaccinated so boom you have increased transmissibility and evading immune response delta is more transmissible than the current flus we deal with or any of those four common colds that we talked about earlier but it's less transmissible than measles and polio it's also nice to know that this

transmissibility of a virus can't just increase forever we're dealing with the laws of nature here and there are certain parameters on our biology the virus needs to toy with the ability to replicate in thine airways and lungs but also with making sure we're not so sick it wants us to be out there and spreading it doesn't want us to be sick at home in bed not able to move the

virus wants to infect my family and when we say want here a gentle reminder that the virus isn't sentient and doesn't consciously want these things it's just that the more optimal versions of the virus will spread more effectively out competing other variants that might be too deadly or not transmissible enough omicron came out of left field like she

stomped on the scene this baby has 30 mutations in the spike protein and has evolved to infect people who are immune through vaccination or previous infection to delta but as gains and transmissibility slow it needs to figure out ways to continue to overcome immune responses which is probably what's

happening right now experiments and lab sequencing of variants circulating right now have identified a bunch of mutations in spike proteins that weaken your body's immune response which has been boosted by vaccination or prior infection but the important thing that we do know is that vaccines continue to

protect against severe disease your t-cell mediated immunity created by the mrna vaccine is a huge step in speeding up and overcoming this pandemic and that's why getting the world vaccinated is so important that doesn't mean it'll just go away overnight but being vaccinated continues to make you more resilient to any mutations in sars cov2 over time as it's proven to make you less sick perhaps even more important is that it allows you to not contribute to the problem of it becoming even more transmissible or evading immunity so

continued vaccination can build up a wall of immunity that the virus can no longer overcome essentially if the whole world was suddenly vaccinated at once the overall t-cell mediated immunity would be high enough to help us be more resilient to any upcoming changes of the virus and as a result it wouldn't be able to spread as fast and likely become endemic more easily as of now there are

six scenarios that experts think about our future for covid one we do a better job vaccinating the world the overall t-cell immunity of humanity increases making the virus more likely to be endemic resulting in outbreaks and epidemics of varying sizes like other respiratory infections we already have

more like the current coronaviruses and flu we all deal with two still considered endemic we have small changes in the spike proteins that open up parts of society to reinfection the virus continues to evolve but we combat waning immune responses with annual vaccines like the flu shot and the only people

who are highly susceptible are those who are unvaccinated and children born without immunity three this one's good but not likely we invent a vaccine like the measles vaccine that offers lifetime protection and the only people who are susceptible are newborn kids four it ends up like respiratory syncytial virus
meaning it's around like maybe forever but in the far future most people get infected in the first two years of life it is mild for most kids but it does

cause high hospitalization rates overall for infants as it spreads or evolves adults have mild symptoms due to their exposure they already had as a kid five it ends up like influenza a the whittle bugger that drives global flu each year this bb has rapid evolution and spreads with new variants that are able to escape the immunity elicited by past strains this results in seasonal

epidemics largely spread by adults who can still have severe illness like the flu vaccine our annual coronavirus vaccine will decrease transmissibility and decrease severe disease but the quick mutation means that these vaccines aren't always properly designed for the specific strains of the year and will need to continually be updated six it ends up like influenza b evolves more

slowly and is driven largely by infection in children who have less immunity than adults who are more immune From prior infection and vaccines it's important to remember that how quickly sar cov2 evolves in relation to immune response will continually explain how often we need to be updating these

vaccines right now this coronavirus is evolving faster than other seasonal coronaviruses or influenza a but experts do predict that it'll slow down to maybe needing an updated vaccine every year like the flu or potentially every two or five years but it's equally possible that it could mutate into something worse we just can't know for sure a lot of people are looking at the uk and the us's strategy right now which is just to sort of let the virus rip and

potentially infect almost everyone and while this might be a high risk high reward strategy it's also leaving really fertile ground for sars cov2 to take surprising evolutionary leaps only time will tell if that'll breed new strains that can re-infect people at high rates or more effectively evade vaccine immunity so will it end this year hey i guess it kind of depends on what

the word end means to you we may be hearing about this for years to come even though it's not infecting people as severely as it is right now regardless the future is in our hands in some waysit is important that we vaccinate the whole world not just the wealthy nations because as homo sapien sapiens suffering from this disease it is important that we all have the increased t cell mediated immune responses to help fight against this virus's ability to change or mutate and therefore cause the next wave in the coming future

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